US Election 2012 guide: the swing states

US Election swing states 

ARIZONA

Electoral votes: 11
Population: 6.4 million
2008: McCain - 54 per cent / Obama - 45 per cent

Arizona’s rapidly growing Latino population will pose a challenge to traditional Republican dominance in the state. In 2008, then-candidate John McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, carried the state easily, but Mitt Romney will not have this home advantage. In 2012, Obamacould become just the second Democrat to win Arizona since 1948. Controversy over Arizona’s 2010 immigration law - and the Supreme Court case that struck down the bulk of it - highlights the fact that immigration is a bigger issue here than perhaps anywhere else in the country.

COLORADO

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Electoral votes: 9
Population: 5 million
2008: McCain - 45 per cent / Obama - 54 per cent

Obama won handily in Colorado in 2008 - using the state’s relatively large urban and suburban populations to counterbalance the votes of its conservative rural areas - but it’s not clear whether he will be able to repeat his victory four years on. The unemployment rate is marginally better here than the national average but Colorado has been ravaged by home foreclosures and has traditionally backed Republicans. The state is also home to around 100,000 Mormons who are likely to tilt towards Romney.

FLORIDA

Electoral votes: 29
Population: 18.8 million
2008: McCain - 48 per cent / Obama - 51 per cent

The largest and most controversial of the swing states, Florida was the scene of the infamous election recount of 2000, where weeks of legal wrangling ended with the Supreme Court handing the election to George W Bush. Florida's varied demographics mean candidates will have to juggle a range of issues across the state. Military families in the north worry about cuts to defence spending while the large elderly Jewish population in the south is focused on pensions and Israel and Cuban voters in Miami stress America's policy towards the Castro regime. The whole state has been beset with housing foreclosures since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007.

IOWA

Electoral votes: 6
Population: 3 million
2008: McCain - 48 per cent / Obama - 54 per cent

Although better known as the opening contest in the Republican and Democrat presidential nomination processes, Iowa will draw attention in November as an unpredictable swing state. It is one of the country’s most rural, but Iowans still chose a Democrat in five of the last six elections. Romney will have to fight against Iowa’s relatively low unemployment rate to convince voters that Obama is failing them. While six electoral votes may seem insignificant when over 500 are in play, Iowa’s choice could mean the difference between a win, a loss, or an unthinkable draw.

MICHIGAN

Electoral votes: 16
Population: 9.9 million
2008: McCain - 41 per cent / Obama - 57 per cent

Michigan is Mitt Romney’s nominal home state, but that won’t matter much in 2012. Many Michiganders believe that Obama’s bailout of Detroit auto giants GM and Chrysler - which Romney opposed - effectively rescued the state’s major industry. However, unemployment remains frustratingly high, and Obama will have to fight to defend his 2008 win here. If Romney can sell his line that Obama has damaged the American industrial sector, Michigan might vote Republican for the first time since 1988.

MISSOURI

Electoral votes: 10 
Population: 6 million
2008: McCain - 49.43 per cent / Obama - 49.29 per cent

In 2008, McCain’s margin of victory here was less than 4,000 votes, and the count could be similar this year. Missouri has long been split between two identities, one Southern and conservative, and the other Midwestern and more moderate. The two groups even pronounce the name of the state differently. Standing across this fault line is incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill, one of the most moderate voices in the Senate. McCaskill is trailing significantly in the polls, possibly indicating that Missouri is feeling particularly southern (and Republican) this year.

NEVADA

Electoral votes: 6
Population: 2.7 million
2008: McCain - 43 per cent / Obama - 55 per cent

Nevada’s economy is in seriously bad shape. The state’s once-thriving tourism industry - centred around Las Vegas - is in turmoil, and the housing market has not yet recovered. Unemployment almost 12 per cent, about 3.5 points above the national average. Despite all this bad news, Romney has not been able to lock Nevada down. Standing in his way are recently cantankerous Democratic Senator Harry Reid, not to mention a sizeable minority of traditionally left-leaning voters in the state and a growing Hispanic population.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Electoral votes: 4 
Population: 1.3 million
2008: McCain - 45 per cent / Obama - 54 per cent

Buried in the Democratic stronghold of New England lies the fiercely independent New Hampshire. Like Iowa, the state is home to some of the earliest primary contests for both parties.The outsize attention New Hampshire receives from the two parties as a result usually creates a tight contest for New Hampshire’s four electoral votes. Obama won by wide margins among women here voters in 2008. He will continue to hit Republicans hard over their “war on women” to try and repeat his New Hampshire victory.

NORTH CAROLINA

Electoral votes: 15 
Population: 9.5 million
2008: McCain - 49.4 per cent / Obama - 49.7 per cent

North Carolina was a narrow win for Obama in 2008 - the margin was about 14,000 votes. Before 2008, the state had been a Republican stronghold since 1980, and it will be difficult for Obama to win again here. Embattled Democratic Governor Bev Purdue, elected as part of Obama’s 2008 Democratic wave, has announced that she won’t seek re-election. Purdue’s political demise, coupled with a 9.9 per cent state unemployment rate, spell trouble for Obama. The president will have to drum up more enthusiasm among young and minority voters - who tipped North Carolina for him in 2008 - in order to have a chance here.

OHIO

Electoral votes: 18
Population: 11.5 million
2008: McCain - 47 per cent / Obama - 52 per cent

Ohio has a well-deserved reputation as a bellwether state. Often viewed as a microcosm of US demography and economy, Ohio has picked the eventual winner nearly every presidential election since 1944, with one miss in 1960. With a large swathe of undecided voters (and 18 electoral votes) Ohio swung the 2004 election for George W Bush. The state’s trade unions are spoiling for a fight after Republican governor John Kasich tried to curtail their bargaining rights in 2011. Unemployment is falling, but the state’s industrial base continues to deteriorate and the housing market is in poor shape. Polls give Obama the slightest of leads, but if Romney can convince Ohioans that he can bring industry back to the state, he could certainly win here.

PENNSYLVANIA

Electoral votes: 20 
Population: 12.7 million
2008: McCain - 44 per cent / Obama - 54 per cent

Staffers at Obama’s campaign headquarters knew they had won the 2008 election when they saw Pennsylvania turn blue - a signal that opposition in some parts of the white working class would not be enough to hold back the Democrats. The President has a good chance of recapturing the state this year, pointing to a pick up in American manufacturing and attacking Romney as a union buster. But unemployment remains high and the Obama campaign will need to maximise turnout in urban areas like Philadelphia to hold their margins.

VIRGINIA

Electoral votes: 13
Population: 8 million
2008: McCain - 46 per cent / Obama - 53 per cent

In 2008 Virginia supported a Democrat for the first time since 1964, becoming a symbol for the unique wave of enthusiasm that swept Obama to victory. Three and a half years later, the state has not yet settled into either camp. An unpopular Republican governor and a rapidly growing urban area in the northern part of the state should help Obama. However, the state’s southern portions are still solidly conservative, and unemployment has not budged much in recent months. A local Republican plan to divert funding from public schools towards road maintenance has become a surprising hot button election issue.

WISCONSIN

Electoral votes: 10
Population: 5.7 million
2008: McCain - 42 per cent / Obama 56 per cent

Wisconsin state politics leapt into the national spotlight in 2011, when Republican Governor Scott Walker curbed union rights for many public sector workers. Massive protests and a teachers’ strike ensued, but Walker’s reforms were upheld, and he survived a recall election. Despite Republicans’ apparent vindication in the mess, Obama maintains an edge in Wisconsin polls. Walker’s unpopularity has hurt Romney but his selection of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate may put him back in contention.